Looking East: The Evolving Role of Uzbekistan’s Mineral Wealth on the Global Stage
- Callum Rand
- 7 days ago
- 3 min read
In the global game of musical chairs, America has signalled its intent to leave and take its chair with it. For countries like Uzbekistan, this means looking for a new place to sit when the music stops. The frontrunners for this position are Russia, China, and the European Union. Possible engagement with Russia or China has its merits, but Uzbek policymakers have been looking to increase cooperation with the European Union. The European heads of state and other global leaders have been forced to make similar considerations. While some look for a panacea in the resources of the far north, South America, or Africa, the European Union has made significant steps to increase its engagement with Central Asia. Culminating in a summit in Samarkand this April, Central Asian heads of state marked 30 years of diplomatic relations with the EU by committing to a new partnership centred on shared defence concerns and, more importantly, increased trade.
Trade between Uzbekistan and the European Union has steadily increased since 2013, but this increase has come mainly in the form of increased exports to Uzbekistan. The new bilateral Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA) that this summit was convened to discuss will most likely be made with the explicit goal of allowing European governments and firms to gain greater access to the mineral wealth of Central Asia.
International policy is increasingly isolationist and protectionist. As a result, the European Union’s stability has been jeopardised. As the joint declaration that resulted from the summit stated, “Cooperation on critical raw materials is of strategic importance” and that to weather any economic uncertainty, this cooperation would need to be “aimed at ensuring secure, sustainable and diversified supply chains.”
Where the European Union is concerned, the most important raw materials that Uzbekistan produces are copper, gold, and uranium. Bolstered by sizeable investments in the Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Complex, domestic copper production is expected to nearly triple from its current 142,800 metric tonnes by 2028 in anticipation of increased demand from the European markets. Another mineral key to the future of Uzbek-European relations is gold. Navoi-GMK, the country's leading producer of gold with an over 80% market share, is in the process of implementing an ambitious 3.1 billion dollar expansion of its domestic operations. Perhaps most critically, Uzbekistan is the world's largest producer of uranium. Having supplied a large portion of the uranium used to power the Soviet Union, the country built up a robust uranium mining industry in the country's western desert regions. Uranium is one of the most important resources in the world, but it is often overlooked due to its invisibility in the everyday consumer markets. With questions raised about the stability of European access to fossil fuels through the Nord Stream Pipeline and the United States, many EU member states have signalled their intent to increase their nuclear power operations. Given the likely terms of this future EPCA, this need for uranium is a gap that Uzbekistan would be uniquely positioned to fill.
With the increased scrutiny on Central Asia and Uzbekistan, our team will be considering the question “How does this newfound sense of importance shape Uzbek self-perception?” This summit, while spurred by the actions of the Trump administration, is a manifestation of the liberalisation and globalisation trend that Uzbekistan has been following since Shavkat Mirziyoyev took power in 2016. In these eight years, the Uzbek public has had time to react and adopt opinions informed by their experiences. From young professionals who have graduated from the increasingly prominent Uzbek universities, to the more senior Soviet-era Uzbeks, who were brought up within the USSR, witnessed its collapse, and are now following the country into these uncertain times, every Uzbek citizen has their thoughts on the country’s future.
